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as they're released so once again thank you for all the questions that I got on
the recent Q&A there were a lot of them some of them I can answer some I can't
but the purpose of this video is to go through some of those questions and have
a look at some of the answers that I can give you sort of immediately off the top
my head without detailed explanations and as I've said before some of them
what we're going to do is we're going to probably produce video specifically
around individual topics Darrin and I have replied to this for the message
said I often find hidden clues in your videos yes you do and that is because I
deliberately put some in there it's good that people have noticed it it's really
for people who want to think a bit deeper or wants to understand the
markets in greater depth so there is there stuff that I sort of consider not
standard or yes I'm trying to find a word for I don't know what what the word
is for it but yeah I'll drop little hints in now and again or do little
things that should give you a deeper insight if it's if you really want us to
go that deep what is typical price behavior of a pre-race based on 10
runners not totally sure I understand what that question is if you go back
onto the video and elaborate then I can probably give you an answer but if you
look at typical price behavior you know one of the things that you may or may
not be aware of is that on average the most likely finished price of if the
odds is the starting price and that's that's odd but if you look 5 to 10
minutes out and something's priced at 4 and you plot a bell curve at a
distribution where it ends up then the most frequent
occurrence is for it turned up exactly where it started and then obviously the
bell curve spreads out on either side from there the number of runners smaller
fields are slightly more volatile than bigger fields but very often there are
other mitigating factors within there so that's an almost impossible question to
answer without any more detail Jeff hello Jeff says how can you tell if
you're answering a market at value price I'm not really looking for value most of
the time the market itself very often is inefficient the the prices go all over
the place for no real valid reason at all I remember really well I think it
was last year there was a race at Goodwood that was a group race that two
horses were perfectly suited to the cost and distance the rating of horses was
exactly the same they'd won last time out on similar ground and basically to
all intents and purposes these were exactly the same horses that should have
been rated exactly the same way but you should have seen the market absolutely
completely bonkers so I'm not particularly looking at a particular
value price I'm just looking for extremes where the markets obviously
completely lost its marbles and that then the price has to correct at some
point and I'll say has a policy it may not but you tends to get a feeling for
that very easily there's no way that a horse that was at sixes can go off at
101 so naturally they have have to be points at which it will be back to no
further but when you look at drifting prices if the horse is loose and then
charges through a fence you know that's gonna go on for a long time so I'm
normally looking at extremes unless if there's a mitigating factor as to why it
should continue its current trend would you regard greyhound racing as one of
the toughest nuts to cracked i alternate some of the ground racing that I do I
say I think some pretty much all a bit every now and again you're in the winter
I'll dive into greyhound racing and have a good look at the the
Greyhounds and try and understand if there's stuff to be done on there but
the because the market tenor was so small sort of maybe fifteen thousand to
per market it's just not big enough for me to spend much time on so I tend to
but my bots on it most of the time and I might and it says in here am i selective
on certain tracks in time of the day when you're into the races yeah you've
got afternoon bags meetings that have high liquidity the open races in the
evening a much much higher liquidity and they often produce uncompetitive races
that have very different characteristics to the afternoon packs meetings so they
are very different depending upon you know so if you're just trying to find
one strategy that works on all those different races the morning card the
afternoon in the evening you're probably better off splitting it and two
individual sessions and different types of races what's tool to use in this
workshop if my strategy is modeling consistent income what tools show use in
the problem that you have as there is no answer to that because for every market
there's a strategy in every strategy or market and your role as a trader is to
go in and apply the right tool to the right market so that's what your job is
basically all the strategies that we have within the product work really well
but only when applied to the right market at the right time so that's part
of the skill of trading is identifying markets where situations are likely to
be more favorable if you look at dutching you I did a video on touching
indicating the markets where that tends to work the better so you may want to
have a look at that particular video
people talk about the importance of prize money in asset events because you
explain how does that prize men in race reflect in the trading volume a very
short answer to this is basically the higher quality the event the more prize
money there will be and therefore there will be more betting focused on that
race and that will drive volume so if you look at chatting them at a skirt a
champions day at a skirt and do all of those big meetings I absolutely love
those because the prize money is very big and therefore
that's going to drive liquidity and when there's lots of money in the market and
I can do bigger traits so that's why I tend to like those and it sort of says
here is market is much more stable you tend to find that the markets more
certain when you get a very very big race the markets more certain that it
knows what the price should be and there's less variability within the
market the problem that you have is most people know that and therefore there's
more money so it doesn't improve the quality of the market because it takes
longer to get matched if you can get an order in and out of the market really
quickly that's the lowest risk that you'll take
but when you trade a bigger race where the markets are more stable the order
queue is massive and therefore you can't get your order through quickly so the
risk goes up so you don't win whichever way you do it it's it's unfortunate you
go for lower quality races you get your order filled really quickly but the
markets much more volatile so you know swings and roundabouts really in the
scheme of things lists of different variables there are so many this is the
looking here can you list lists of errors the defect price order there if
he looks for all the videos that I've done over the years I very often break
down individual components in individual videos so I did a video called trading
the balance which is basically the end of the market and then other videos have
done a little bit earlier somewhere during the high liquidity periods but it
changes depending upon what position you are in the market there'll be quite a
difficult video to produce if I run courses or try and give people advice it
takes me all day to explain all of the things that influence the outcome of the
market but the fact is is you're looking at a whole range of different variables
but they're not all equally applied you know they apply in some markets nine
others and some strong characteristics characteristics and some are weaker but
if you look at all the videos I've ever produced each one of those tends to
focus on one of those aspects sometimes you may combine two or three in one go
Jeff hello hello again Jeff says once I'm trading you weights the previous
trend to end before entering the market you predict the end of the trend before
happens if you if you're trading effectively you
should always be anticipating price action whether it's short long or
however you want to do it but I give you a scenario here if I see something's
being backed in very heavily then I will look for evidence that it's going to
continue to be back to heavily but at the same time I'll be looking at where I
think it could bounce where I think the opportunity for the market to start to
stall will be and if I'm sort of near at that point and some of this is dependent
upon how much time I've got to trade then I'll start looking for for an
opposing trend so I'm looking for the exhaustion of the backing however
sometimes it's really easy to see that something is going to be continuously
backed endlessly because you you look at the market you see a big chunk of money
come in and then the price probably just moves back a bit and meanders around and
then another big chunk comes and then in me and then another big chunk and it's
it's I describe it like that because that's what it feels like you're busy
trading you're looking at in this boom boom boom boom and you can sense that
money flooding through the market but I would say apart from an exceptional
circumstances that generally everything has a floor there's a price at which it
will not want to really go and that much so if I'm in a market that's trending
heavily I will place closing orders somewhere near where I think it will
start to stall because I prefer to be at the front of the queue to get out of the
market as quickly as I can when that occurs
Charles Peter says do you tempt to concentrate on quantitive football
trading rather than one matter time I think what you're trying to say there is
do you do many or one so I I do tend to do more than one but you tend to find
you trade less effectively if you do that so there'll be a match that I'd
prefer to watch and then I will you know do whatever I'm trying to do as a broad
strategy that says broad strategies narrow strategy right in that particular
market so if I watch a match I can read the match quite well I can tell what the
ebb and flow is whether I think there's more likely to be gold and and how the
match is shaping up so there was a good example which maybe I need to put up on
a video when I was watching stamps and obviously I know the Sampson team really
well and the strengths and weaknesses of individual players but I could tell when
they took an early lead that they were not going to hold on to that for a
number of reasons so when you look at a match intensity like that that that's a
good way to trade it but the problem you've got is a gold could go in at any
point for any reason you do all of you research you understand it really well
and then some guy just makes a horrific mistake and the balls in the back of the
net so for that reason I prefer to deploy a number of strategies across the
range of markets I like you the Europa League and the Champions League group
stages simply for the fact that you can aggregate your risk across many markets
so I quite like to do that but I'm most effective over the long term at trading
that one individual match where I can watch the match and understand exactly
what's going on within that match and anticipate stuff that's likely to happen
yeah Jeff says what role does mean reversion play in trading it's funny I
misread that I thought I thought it was said mean reversion in play trading it
so suddenly would generally the market does mean revert most of the time so I
would describe the market as a process of mean reversion and that would
typically be the de facto way that the market tends to work it's just that on
the particular market on which you're on at that moment in time it may not revert
but if you kept that market running for 20 minutes you probably find that it
woods do but not always because obviously there were mitigating factors
in terms of what's going on on course that may influence that that result but
in general I would say yes the market tends to mean revert just keeping an eye
on the the race I want a trade is coming up in a second so I may have to duck out
I'm just watching how long we've got before they go to post now I think I'm
okay now to this moment in time do you trade cricket if yes etc I don't have
time straight cricket I would like to trade cricket I probably may trade it at
some point in the future but my hands are so full on other sports that I tend
not to do it and I know there's an opportunity there and I know it's a
fast-growing sport and there and I know some really good trick
cricket to the traders but I haven't had the time to sit down and do it and also
I have to quantify stuff I need to know roughly what I'm doing what impact is a
wicket likely to have and it took the t20 match with X number of overs the
next number of runs left I need to be able to to quantify that before I even
attempt to do so yeah that's still a little bit off at the moment Jeff again
how many so Jeff is that three or four yeah the escaping to a profitable I go
back to my mantra which is for every market there's a strategy every strategy
a market so scalping always has been profitable it was profitable in more
markets 20 years ago than it is today but yeah it's just a question of market
selection you have to decide where you want to deploy that strategy and that's
what your role is as a tray it's not a question as to whether it
works or not because yes it does but only given the right circumstances
happier this I like this question Jason Busby here have you ever did you ever
back at 101 or lay at 1,000 if so what were the circumstances never but I have
done the opposite so laying it 101 you will find that if you lay out 101 that's
profitable but everybody knows that so everybody's there so by default you can
tell that backing at 101 is not profitable but one of the things I've
noticed and you may see me tweet this now and again is when you look at the
horses coming up to that last fence I've actually modeled you know all of
the individual courses how many fences there are and the likelihood of fall at
any one of those fences over certain distances and on different ground and
you can tell that if you could back it 110 or above as it was about to jump
that last fence then there's probably some some value there but backing at 101
in that particular market just makes no sense at all you will lose money so I'm
amazed to always see people backing at 101 even before the horses manage to
clear the last fence I don't think that's a particularly valid strategy
however I have backed horses to win in running at 1000 and you can sort of
during the jump season this is a strategy that I will deploy it's not
something I'll do in the it's funny actually I was gonna say it's not
something I doing the flat season however I by very ever first 1000 I
managed to capture in play was because I had a bit of spare money floating around
the market and I was experimenting with touching the back of the book and I
happened to catch a horse I remember so well I can tell you the the racecourse
in the name was a horse called Bowman see bawd a bawd bear pod Bob Berman see
Bob at Salisbury and I remember experimenting with this process of
taking some profit and spreading air around the back of the book to try and
find some valley and I happened to capture odds of a
thousand and I have done that fairly frequently although typically it's
something that would tend to happen during the jump season so you imagine
you've got a short priced favorite and it falls at a jump of some sort and then
things that much much bigger prices have the opportunity to come into much much
shorter prices and they me and the follower may impede other runners as
well so if you get lots of followers or other things that happen you could have
one of those big moments in a jumps race where you land something get very very
large odds so yeah I wouldn't do what you suggest there which is back at one I
want to lay a thousand you know that said if if you're trying to hedge out a
position where you've got spare money in a market such as for example if I'm in a
multi-month market where some of the odds of move two thousand I may just lay
a thousand to get rid of liability and to free up the cash but that's about the
only time I'll do that generally I'd do completely the opposite jeff says big
fan of black Scholes equation or black sculls depending upon which way you want
to pronounce it how does it apply to the betting exchange well if you are into
black Scholes you'll know it's all to do with volatility over time so that should
hopefully I'll see your question
I'm just reading Darrin's question here which is you've mentioned psychology has
trader in in particular prospect theory yep and make sure you read up on that
have you started to read up on this well then what I understand is that generally
people hurt about losing 5 pound they feel more more than about losing fat
ponen that you were gaining it does this describe where you see traders panic and
exit rates spot on if you've been reading up on it then hopefully you'll
begin to understand and reach the conclusions that I did with it and you
see it right through the market all of the things that are discussed about
prospect theory and in those books and in the academic papers related to it
they've described beautifully or you see in the market for many years couldn't
understand what's going on in the market or why didn't seem to make any sense to
me and prospect theory gave me the answers and related material around that
area be careful when you when you read up on this sort of stuff because a lot
of books are written to be sold they're not written from an academic perspective
so it's better and I know it's painful sometimes if you can read the academic
reasoning behind it because it will give you a much deeper understanding
don't buy books that say interested in prospect theory buy this book and
understand it in 10 minutes and apply it to your everyday life because they tend
to summarize short cut stuff and it you don't get a full description do you find
they're more backers than layers in different markets you do you tend to
find different markets attract different types of activity although in essence
really the market is always has to be an equilibrium because you need layers for
every backer and so on so it's difficult to say there are more backers than
layers in certain markets but typically you will find that obviously if there's
an imbalance then it moves the price anyway so you can tell that there are
more of one type in a market than in the others but there is a propensity for
people and it's sort of in relation to the question above there is a propensity
for people to want to back because if you put down 10 to win a hundred in a
market at ten to one people will love that and they will back that until the
cows come home but if you say to them you could win a tenner by laying a
hundred people will be nervous because of the the risk associated with that so
you tend to find that there's an imbalance what I should do is a video on
this because there's a brilliant way that you can show this in real life
and the the impact of what you see in this sort of scenario so maybe I should
do a video about that Reuben born here asked a question similar to one that was
a little bit further up so I think I've probably covered that to some extent
probably one aspect of this question is are there common dead ends that people
tend to go down that wastes time and Rhoni enthusiasm I'd say probably it's
funny I was gonna say watching youtube videos no people get obsessed with
thinking that there's some magical process somewhere when in fact it's
better that you just spend your time and effort getting screen time and getting
familiar with the way that the market works I'd say probably the most
important thing is to understand the trading process properly because if you
don't understand the trading process properly then you can fall into the trap
of not getting anything else right so you have to get used to that process of
putting an order in taking an order out and managing that position and then you
can start to get clever what probably wastes most people's time
buying some brand new system or trying some generic strategy that has been
given to them or you know you see you see many systems appear and concepts
appear so like scalping sort of is a nice little strategy but it gets
overused and misused regularly and then people will write entire books about it
and produce individual components of about scalping and the bear no relevance
to how it should be used in the market so it's more important you put
strategies to use in the market and learn them rather than think that
there's some sort of element of shortcutting
although there is there definitely a right or wrong way to do it as I've said
before and I said again every market has a strategy so your role as a trader is
to identify and what you should be doing in that market to start with you're only
going to know that after the markets finished but over time your objective is
to understand a better and better so that you can anticipate it
Matt's PC says I'm seeing you familiar with Dixon scales paper in 1997 so I was
wondering if you haven't implemented this your mother's profitable no I
started working on football matches in the mid-80s so I did a Dixon's Cole
before Dixon's Cole did I went back to the library brushed up on my maths
started to work through all of the concepts and stuff but obviously a lot
of water has passed under the bridge from there so there are so many
different again I think this almost needs a separate video on it really
because modelling football matches are something I do all of the time and I
enjoy the challenge of that if you're not part of our super 60 check out the
forum because you can compete against me on that if you want and that's all to do
with prediction but I wouldn't use Dixon skulls to attempt to make money that's
my short answer probably needs a much longer answer than that this is a nice
question if there's Tuesday one of your trading career what three things with
you begin with an open mind a reasonable trading bank in a bit software that
valid in all honesty that is what I would start with I think that you need
to approach it without any prejudice and you definitely need software and I think
that you also needs to be able to approach it unprejudiced by anything
that has gone before I probably a better question would be
where would I start it maybe I did do a video on my first year of Betfair
trading which he may be interested in watching on that but I'm thinking that
there may be a better answer in terms of you know what things do you need to
really get going and how should you really get going
I'm working on some stuff at the moment now that will probably release the new
that would probably help people get started a bit quicker but less about
that you know well talk about that at that particular moment in time so I
think I've done about another half an hour or so of answers here so probably
time to shut this video off and I'll hopefully continue the others in another
video fairly shortly so yeah thanks for those questions have you I've given you
a few answers there that you can get something from and I'll record to the
remaining answer questions that we have on here on a separate video
you
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